Surprisingly cogent meditation on probabilistic thinking in the NYT. Takeaways: 1. People round probabilities up to 100% or down to 0%. 2. People call probability “wrong” if <50% events happen 3. People need a story to take <50% scenarios seriouslyhttps://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/24/opinion/2017-wrong-numbers.html …
Replying to @vgr
In business it manifests as an inability to pursue multiple forks at once: strategy = erroneously assigning 100% certainty to future events
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