Optimism about the short-term situation (i.e. that the curve is leveling off) does not necessarily translate into optimism about the long-term situation, because the reason the curve is bending downward is social distancing and we don't rally have a plan for the next phase yet.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
The "plan" in some states appears to be to build healthcare capacity over the next month and then throttle social distancing up and down with oscillating lockdowns until the population reaches herd immunity. It's rather unambitious and grim.
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Replying to @PatrickFIanagan @NateSilver538
I think that’s probably right, except a lot of people will voluntarily social distance till there’s a vaccine / effective treatment so business will remain suppressed for years. Q4 2021 for return to “normal”?
3:57 AM - 9 Apr 2020
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