I notice I'm confused. I think there's a greater than 1% chance that we see complete societal meltdown in the next year. I also notice I'm not taking drastic action to prepare.
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Replying to @garybasin
Calm down. The UK government thought the chance of societal meltdown was higher than 50% when the Germans started bombing civilians in cities in 1940. Nothing of the sort happened. Everybody just dealt with it. This is painful but manageable.
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Replying to @SimonPearceLive @garybasin
Is that a fully general argument against societal meltdowns? Because societies do sometimes collapse. Pointing out one time a society didn't collapse doesn't seem like strong evidence that it won't happen a different time.
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Replying to @michaelkeenan_0 @garybasin
I’m pointing out that there’s a bias that happens at times of upheaval. Even leaders with solid data under estimate general social resiliency, quite significantly. The level of social discipline during the Blitz astounded leaders at the time. They did not expect it.
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Replying to @SimonPearceLive @michaelkeenan_0
Agreed. Wondering if this situation is worse. There are those that have the means to hole up and be fine. That's not the case when the Nazis are coming
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Lots to unpack. 2 main points. 1. Social resiliency is often underestimated in the short term (see Churchill’s WW2 magnum opus) However, 2. Long term social cohesion ebbs and flows on very long cycles as noted by @Peter_Turchin in “War and peace and war”.
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