I notice I'm confused. I think there's a greater than 1% chance that we see complete societal meltdown in the next year. I also notice I'm not taking drastic action to prepare.
I’m pointing out that there’s a bias that happens at times of upheaval. Even leaders with solid data under estimate general social resiliency, quite significantly. The level of social discipline during the Blitz astounded leaders at the time. They did not expect it.
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Agreed. Wondering if this situation is worse. There are those that have the means to hole up and be fine. That's not the case when the Nazis are coming
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Lots to unpack. 2 main points. 1. Social resiliency is often underestimated in the short term (see Churchill’s WW2 magnum opus) However, 2. Long term social cohesion ebbs and flows on very long cycles as noted by
@Peter_Turchin in “War and peace and war”.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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If the proposition was "certain/high chance of societal meltdown" I'd agree that the Blitz is instructive. But the concern is whether the chance is low but not negligible. Counterexamples can get you from "definitely" to "maybe", but not from "probably not" to "definitely not".
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