I notice I'm confused. I think there's a greater than 1% chance that we see complete societal meltdown in the next year. I also notice I'm not taking drastic action to prepare.
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Is that a fully general argument against societal meltdowns? Because societies do sometimes collapse. Pointing out one time a society didn't collapse doesn't seem like strong evidence that it won't happen a different time.
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I’m pointing out that there’s a bias that happens at times of upheaval. Even leaders with solid data under estimate general social resiliency, quite significantly. The level of social discipline during the Blitz astounded leaders at the time. They did not expect it.
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I think those odds were probably right. Just because it didn't happen doesn't mean it's not going to.
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