You should make decisions when you are 70% certain. I have a whole backlog of 69.9% certain decisions queued up.
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Replying to @vgr
You should make decisions when the net expected payoff is positive when you have a normally distributed or positively skewed asymmetric option and the foreseeable tail risk is not catastrophic enough to ruin you.
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Replying to @vgr
Joking aside I do have a rough philosophical notion about notions of truth being related to a calculation about advantageous outcomes, not at a superficial level but at the level of all that Wittgenstein I read and barely “got”
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I think there’s something there about the viability of Democracy based on the pursuit of consensus-at-scale under different global productive capacity scenarios. Global game theory using your tribal stacks concept to run the model where “truth” is an intra-group mechanism.
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