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Simon Michaux
@SimonMichaux
Associate Professor of geometallurgy at the Geological Survey of Finland PhD (Mining Engineering) Bach App Sc. (Physics & Geology), Systems Thinker
Joined August 2022
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Table A17. Global market proportions of EV battery chemistries in 2040 (Source: IEA 2021) (12/12)
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Table A11. Global market proportions of power storage chemistries in 2040 (Source: drawn from IEA 2021, Diouf & Pode 2015) (11/12)
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IEA (2021a): The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook Special Report, World Energy Outlook Special Report
IEA (2021b): Global EV Outlook, International Energy Agency report (10/12)
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The VRB is a type of rechargeable flow battery, that employs vanadium ions as charge carriers (Sangwon 2019). The battery uses vanadium's ability to exist in solution in four different oxidation states to make a battery with a single electroactive element instead of two. (9/12)
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Assuming that the specific energy density of VRB chemistries was 32 Wh/kg (Manthiram et al. 2017), the VRB metal content was estimated in terms of kg/MW (Table A25). This crude estimate does not account for metal content in electrodes or other parts of the VRB battery. (8/12)
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Vanadium redox battery (VRB) chemistry is being considered as a possible chemistry to manufacture stationary power storage in particular (IEA 2021A). For the purpose of this study, VRB electrolyte was assumed to be vanadyl sulphate (VOSO4). (7/12)
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and are assumed to be the dominant products. The element proportion mass of each chemistry was estimated using atomic mass (Lide 1991). Assuming that the specific energy density of ASSB chemistries is 600 Wh/kg, the metal content was estimated in terms of kg/MW (6/12)
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Solid state battery’s (ASSB) are projected to account for a large proportion of future battery markets. For this study, the ASSB market was to be made up of three ASSB chemistries in equal proportions. These chemistries were selected from Manthiram et al. 2017 (5/12)
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The metal content for each battery chemistry used in this study needs to be presented in the form of metal content per megawatt (MW). Figure A9 shows an estimate of metal use to manufacture a typical ICE vehicle, and EV with various battery chemistries (IEA 2021a). (4/12)
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The EV battery chemistry market share proportions assumed in this study were developed using the prediction for 2040 in Figure A8. The assumed market proportion of Electric Vehicle batteries for this study is shown in Tables into the global vehicle fleet by vehicle class. (3/12)
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There are many available battery chemistries that could be used to manufacture a battery for an Electric Vehicle (EV). A study was published in 2021 (IEA 2021a) that developed a possible global EV battery market share for the year 2040 (Figure A8). (2/12)
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In this second stage, I also used a range of battery chemistries as predicted by IRENA. An IEA report was used to establish the metal of content of each induvial unit. This was then projected on the number needed. The outcome was then summed. (1/12)
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It was for this reason that it is the preferred option (for the reports I have seen on this). This is what the EC think they will do. Of course, we will probably do a range of things all at the same time. (5/5)
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Battery banks, compressed air, fly wheels, molten salt, etc. All work well but have an engineering efficiency window. Battery banks have the most practical window of engineering application. (4/5)
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So, we could possibly find a few sites, but not enough to store a quantity of power 30 times what the EV fleet would need. The sheer quantity of power needed is completely misunderstood. Alternatives to pumped storage exist. (3/5)
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Pumped storage is about 95% of current power storage. Expansion of this will be tricky. Most sites that can have a hydro plant on it, already have one (at least in Europe). Finding a hydro site that can also have a raised reservoir is even rarer. (2/5)
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Power storage buffer has been the subject of debate from tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkis and youtube.com/watch?v=MBVmnK (1/5)
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IRENA (2022): World Energy Transitions Outlook 2022: 1.5°C Pathway, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, ISBN: 978-92-9260-429-5, irena.org/-/media/Files/ (8/8)
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I used an IRENA 2022 study, where they gave a prediction of what the energy split could be in 2050. In this scenario, wind and solar are the primary energy sources. Applying that energy split to the needed power gave 2017.0 TWh of needed power storage. (7/8)
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In the first study, I could not find a sensible energy split for the future, so I took the existing 2018 non-fossil fuel spilt and expanded it to the needed power. 4 weeks of solar in this scenario gave 574.3 TWh of required storage. In a second stage of analysis (6/8)
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4 weeks of what though? I had established that 37 670 TWh of annual capacity a year was needed to phase out fossil fuels. Of this annual solar PV and wind power production was only a portion (7 465.6 TWh) (5/8)
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Wind varied by the minute and also in time scale measured in weeks. In the literature, I found a good reference that suggested 1 month of capacity (for the whole system). I used a very conservative 4 weeks for just wind and solar capacity. (4/8)
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Highly variable loads. Solar radiance in winter is much smaller than in summer. In 2014, the UK parliament did a study on wind. They found that reliable capacity was between 7 and 25% of max capacity. Power production was so erratic that it could not be predicted. (3/8)
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numbers required for stationary power storage. Wind and solar is highly intermittent. The actual power generated by the different systems in what was delivered in 2018, solar PV was operating 11.4% of the time, and wind was operating 24.9% of the time. (2/8)
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Power storage buffer has been the subject of debate from tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkis and youtube.com/watch?v=MBVmnK (1/8)
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Here's why, from the tweet I replied to. Simon has quantified the challenge facing us in transiting from fossil fuels completely, and it's far more daunting than anyone previously appreciated
tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkis
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The Blind Spots of the Green Energy Transition | Olivia Lazard | TED
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Mitä selluloosapohjaiset vaahdotuskemikaalit tuovat kestävämpään kaivostoimintaan?
Ted Nuorivaara avaa #luonnonvaraintutkimussäätiö'n videolla tutkimusaihettaan & sen merkitystä #KestäväKehitys näkökulmasta.
#GTKMintec #GTKPeople
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The quantity of metals required to manufacture just one generation of renewable technology to phase out fossil fuels
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:n pudotti laskelmillaan leuan jo viime syksynä, kun haastattelin häntä -lehden juttuun energiasiirtymän geopolitiikasta. Nyt samat laskelmat on julkaistu raportissa ja kansakunnan pääuutislehtikin reagoi.
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esiinnostama tutkimus osoittaa sen tosiasian, että energia- ja materiaaliratkaisujen välillä on (lähes aina) keskinäisiä riippuvuuksia.On keskeistä, että tämä huomioidaan myös regulaatiokehityksessä #energiamurros #kiertotalous
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“Tens of thousands of aging blades are coming down from steel towers around the world and most have nowhere to go but landfills.”
bloomberg.com/news/features/
#EnergyTransition #ClimateActionNow #NetZero
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"There are not enough minerals in currently reported global reserves to build just one generation of batteries for all EV’s & stationary power storage."
--Simon Michaux, Geological Survey of Finland
gtk.fi/en/time-to-wak
#Commodities #ClimateActionNow #renewables #electricity
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Euroopan kaasuongelma tiivistyy tähän kuvaajaan. Yksinkertaisesti ei pystytä lyhyellä aikavälillä korvaamaan Venäjän kaasua millään - muualta ei saada nettomääräisesti samaa volyymiä vaikka yritettäisiin haalia olemassaolevista sopimuksista välittämättä..
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