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The big difference between the heatwaves of 1976 and 2018.
June 1976: the UK was one of the warmest places relative to normal across the globe, with most areas cooler than average.
June 2018: the UK was just another warm blob in a mostly warmer than normal world.
#GlobalHeatwave.pic.twitter.com/eIsj7glEiE
Wow, this got far more exposure than I was anticipating! I’m glad this has made the global warming picture make sense for so many. Data and maps from the excellent @NASAGISS website, where you can plot similar maps (with whatever base period you like!).
Another thing I’ve got out of the response to this tweet: these maps shouldn’t be surprising. And that shows how much better (still!) we, in the meteorology and climate science community, have to be at communication of the data.
To put this into a long-term global context, here's how June has warmed since @NASAGISS data begins in 1880. I've highlighted 1976 and 2018. Lots of variability, but a steep, persistent and, fundamentally, *undeniable* warming.pic.twitter.com/LZdlpMh3eU
I've added a few of my thoughts on this to a blog post on @SocialMetwork: https://socialmetwork.blog/2018/07/24/its-a-globalheatwave/ ….
Imagine a loaded dice. You throw a 6. But you could have thrown a 6 on a normal dice, too, so you can't be sure you threw a 6 because the dice was loaded - but it vastly increased your chances of doing so. The same logic applies to heatwaves and global warming.
For those who ask, "but didn't the UK have record-breaking cold weather as part of the #BeastFromTheEast in March this year?"
Yes we did, but the UK was one of only a few cooler than average places in an otherwise very warm world. Think global, not local.
Image credit @NASAGISS.pic.twitter.com/o1xqmNur21
Some responses to this tweet took issue with my use of the 1951-1980 base period. So here's the same two images, but plotted using the 1981-2010 base period - the current "climate normal". Same story.pic.twitter.com/qYZw8vxnyo
Data for July 2018 is now available... so here's the (equally stunning) comparison between July 1976 and 2018. The global average temperature was 0.92°C warmer in 2018. The UK heatwave may have now ended, but don't forget the #GlobalHeatwave.pic.twitter.com/5lzw3ZKcwz
Conveniently cropped off to not show Australia in the 2018 model.
I think you'll find if you click on the images they enlarge...and you see Australia to be warm, too. I'm not responsible for how Twitter chooses to crop images in the timeline display!
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