We usually don't use the delphi method or sit down for a cross impact analysis for the "predictions" on the desk. The degree of uncertainty & amount of unknown factors is so great, proper predictions r impossible. Stats, recent results, spice & pander is what we got to work with.
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Yes
@SideshowGaming is 3x better predictor when not under pressure of a desk. Sellout that he is
Factoring in extra information, intangibles, etc. almost always seems to be noise. When you explain every factor on the desk I think there's a tendency to weight incorrectly as you gave equal thinking/speaking time to minor, but interesting or important, points.
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Almost all arguments of “team has X intangible” is very dangerous because you must consider intangibles of their opposition in a fair way. Often times it washes it out.
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The greatest crime is giving credit for hunger for underdogs while failing to credit the drive of those who are favorites. This inequality of hunger is often either imaginary or actually backwards.
End of conversation
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