We usually don't use the delphi method or sit down for a cross impact analysis for the "predictions" on the desk. The degree of uncertainty & amount of unknown factors is so great, proper predictions r impossible. Stats, recent results, spice & pander is what we got to work with.
-
What does "proper" mean? It's definitely possible to build solid mental models with high predictive power in OWL. When only being asked for a winner, the success rate should likely be above 80%. More info doesn't lead to better predictions either.
Doubt it'd be over 80%; I felt I did super well in Contenders predictions and I think I only got like 75%. OWL seems more variable due to patches, trades, and 12 man rosters. I'd be very surprised if people are getting above 70% by now. Can max % be tracked on Eden's project?
-
-
Problem is that you can go 50/50 and thus not declare a winner. I can see if we can create those numbers though. Patches do throw a wrench in the model but by week two most variables solidify a decent amount. Now with locked rosters it got even easier. The avg. game is 80/20.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.