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SharylAttkisson's profile
Sharyl Attkisson
Sharyl Attkisson
Sharyl Attkisson
Verified account
@SharylAttkisson

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Sharyl AttkissonVerified account

@SharylAttkisson

Investigative Journalist @FullMeasureNews *Note* RTs not=endorsement; RTs may be interesting, silly, wrong, outrageous. Question authority. Think for yourself.

Washington, DC
SharylAttkisson.com
Joined October 2010

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    1. Aaron Weiss‏ @aweiss 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3

      Oh, it’s very revealing about the overall mood of the electorate, along with who’s likely to actually vote any given year...

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Aaron Weiss‏ @aweiss 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @aweiss @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3

      …it’s just not a statistically valid way to weight your results on horse race questions.

      5 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Sharyl Attkisson‏Verified account @SharylAttkisson 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @aweiss @RayGuy3

      an equal numbers. They ranged from somewhat heavy on Dems to more than 50% heavy on Dems.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Aaron Weiss‏ @aweiss 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3

      Overall that’s consistent. Dems had about a 7% advantage on party ID last year. There's never been more self-identified Rs in recent years.

      4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Sharyl Attkisson‏Verified account @SharylAttkisson 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @aweiss @RayGuy3

      Related question: what do you think of those percentages.. such as oing into election night, “538” showed Hillary w/ 71% chance winning

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Aaron Weiss‏ @aweiss 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3

      Based on that model, Trump had a 29% chance. That’s called an upset. Happens all the time in sports. I’m more skeptical of the models...

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Aaron Weiss‏ @aweiss 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @aweiss @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3

      …that claimed Trump had a <5% chance. That’s probably a sign of a bad model, considering where the polls were on election day.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Sharyl Attkisson‏Verified account @SharylAttkisson 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @aweiss @RayGuy3

      Does the model look at too many Democrats and not enough Republicans?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Aaron Weiss‏ @aweiss 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3

      Any model that looks at Ds vs Rs is probably a bad model,unless someone can come up with a model that predicts turnout based on affiliation.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Aaron Weiss‏ @aweiss 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @aweiss @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3

      That said, I don’t believe any of the models tried to fit based on party ID. Rightly so. There are better ways to predict turnout.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Sharyl Attkisson‏Verified account @SharylAttkisson 12 Sep 2017
      Replying to @aweiss @RayGuy3

      a poor forecaster for what 2016 would be, but they said it was the best they had scientifically.

      2:34 PM - 12 Sep 2017
      • 1 Like
      • Erik Kaplan
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Aaron Weiss‏ @aweiss 12 Sep 2017
          Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3

          That’s the secret sauce—the pollster who figures out who a likely voter is will do the best. It’s what separates good from mediocre.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Aaron Weiss‏ @aweiss 12 Sep 2017
          Replying to @aweiss @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3

          Good pollsters will be transparent about their likely voter models, but there’s always a bit of proprietary mojo going on.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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