3/ and then you’re expecting voters to accurately report party ID, unless you’re calling from voter rolls instead of random digit dialing.
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Right. But why bother to ask (which they all do) if they assume there's no reliability or legitimacy?
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Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3
Because the shifts in party ID are a very interesting *result* of the polling, not a valid way to weight the polling.
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Perhaps. But I would argue the party sample, even if self-ID'd can be *very* relevant to results on political topics.
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Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3
Oh, it’s very revealing about the overall mood of the electorate, along with who’s likely to actually vote any given year...
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…it’s just not a statistically valid way to weight your results on horse race questions.
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an equal numbers. They ranged from somewhat heavy on Dems to more than 50% heavy on Dems.
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Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3
Overall that’s consistent. Dems had about a 7% advantage on party ID last year. There's never been more self-identified Rs in recent years.
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Related question: what do you think of those percentages.. such as oing into election night, “538” showed Hillary w/ 71% chance winning
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Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3
Based on that model, Trump had a 29% chance. That’s called an upset. Happens all the time in sports. I’m more skeptical of the models...
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Yes but I understand sports upsets more than I understand a political upset like that
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Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3
So then also realize sports upsets are based on a HUGE dataset of possible outcomes. We’ve only had a handful of presidential elections...
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…in the modern polling era. It’s possible that any model that tries to be that certain doesn’t have enough historical data to go on.
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End of conversation
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