1/ But how do you know what the “correct” breakdown of party is to weight for? You could do that for a registered voter poll, but...
Related question: what do you think of those percentages.. such as oing into election night, “538” showed Hillary w/ 71% chance winning
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Based on that model, Trump had a 29% chance. That’s called an upset. Happens all the time in sports. I’m more skeptical of the models...
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Yes but I understand sports upsets more than I understand a political upset like that
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So then also realize sports upsets are based on a HUGE dataset of possible outcomes. We’ve only had a handful of presidential elections...
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…in the modern polling era. It’s possible that any model that tries to be that certain doesn’t have enough historical data to go on.
End of conversation
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