Just a question. There's reasoning behind each method they use. This would seem to poll heavier on younger people.
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Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3
Yes, because young people answer the phone less. Pollsters still weight to match the demographics of the whole population.
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But you need a reasonably sized raw response from each demographic in order for the weighting to be statistically useful.
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True. And they don't always weight for what I thought they did--such as political registration. So they may literally have 75% one party
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Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3
There's good reason for that too -- party ID is very fluid. Age/sex/race is not.
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--or than the voter base? Probably why we were so wrong in campaign 2016.
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Replying to @SharylAttkisson @RayGuy3
1/?? The polls weren’t wrong in 2016. Many forecasts were off because they misinterpreted the polls.
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2/ The nat’l polling average missed the final vote by 2 points in 2016. That’s a perfectly normal election year.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/ …
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3/ State polls were a bigger problem, but that’s more a function of missing data. Not enough polls lead to bad forecasts.
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4/ As for your hypothetical about 95% Ds answering a question, there’s no way for that to happen as long as you’re getting a representative
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the 95% is an exaggeration to make a point... if you interview 35% more (or in some cases more than 50% more) of one party than is
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