The relationship between vacancy rates and rent increases is astonishingly clear. When vacancy rates are low, rent growth is high; when vacancy rates are high, rent growth is low (or negative). H/t to for link: smcorridornews.com/steady-as-she-
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. ran these numbers for Canadian cities in 2018. Again, when housing vacancies are high, rent growth is low; when vacancies are low, rent growth is high. Look at how clear the connection is in Edmonton and Calgary in particular! doodles.mountainmath.ca/blog/2018/11/2
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Here's some old data on the vacancy rate and rent growth in Seattle. It's old, but you see the same thing going back to 1999.
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Here's one created by , using data from an apartment market analytics firm, for the Minneapolis/ St Paul metro area: Vacancies high, rent growth low; vacancies low, rent growth high. strongtowns.org/journal/2020/8
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This isn't the same kind of data, but Palo Alto, home of some of the most overpriced housing on the planet, has had a rental vacancy rate under 2% since at least 2002. That's low even compared to places like SF, LA, and NYC, though Palo Alto probably uses a different methodology.
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I created these for the four-county Seattle area using data from the Washington Center for Real Estate Research. Again, when vacancies are low, rent growth tends to be high, and when vacancies are high, rent growth is low. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d
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Here's another one for the whole US multifamily rental market. I'm honestly surprised that you can see the relationship even at the national level (though not quite so clearly) given the variation between metro area / regional housing markets. mf.freddiemac.com/docs/2021_midy
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Here's a fun one -- rather than vacancies and rent growth, which have an inverse relationship, it's vacancies and landlord concessions, which track with each other. millersamuel.com/three-cents-wo
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Hey, it's Manila, and it's office vacancies rather than residential, but why not. High vacancy, low rent growth; low vacancy, high rent growth. research.jllapsites.com/understanding-
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Found Denver. When vacancies are high, rent growth is low, and vice versa. signatureflip.com/sf01/article.a
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Here's an interesting one for Australia. They inverted the axis for the vacancy rate — I was very confused at first — and it tracks almost perfectly with rent growth. Note that rising vacancies slightly precede rising rents. rba.gov.au/speeches/2012/
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