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Industrial production in Argentina has been deeply into negative territory since the primary elections last year. Growth should improve a bit in the second half of 2020 but it's hard to see what could drive a strong turnaround.pic.twitter.com/5i2cpME00M
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The trade balance, a good early indicator of where current accounts are going, improved across EM last year. We see it as a sign of weak growth, not export prowess. External vulnerability is falling in EM at the cost of lower growth.pic.twitter.com/yCjKORNgJ4
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In the second half of last year we stressed how resilient services PMIs meant recession fears were overdone despite manufacturing weakness. Hard 19Q4 national accounts data for countries like Korea and Spain show services held up very well.pic.twitter.com/s6gJsTZntM
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How much did SARS affect external accounts in EM Asia back in 2003? disruption to travel was deep but temporary. Trade in goods and current accounts didn't move much. Capital flows dropped temporarily but didn't display unusual volatility.pic.twitter.com/OCRhLkW9pC
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Venezuela's oil exports slid in January but they remain in the 800-900k bpd / day range. Asian markets remain open despite US sanctions and will likely continue taking whatever oil Venezuela manages to produce.pic.twitter.com/57vXvVWdu3
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Our database of EM investor portfolios, which is more comprehensive than mutual fund data, shows big deviations in holdings of some Asian equities relative to index weights. Investors are underweight India and China+HK+Taiwan.pic.twitter.com/kfYmEIuwrN
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Markets are pricing many hikes in Brazil in the next 2 years. We think there's a lot of slack in the economy after the recession of 2015-16. Core inflation persistently below target is consistent with this idea. Market pricing too many hikes?pic.twitter.com/fncEDa81OQ
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India's budget took steps to increase the appeal of local assets for foreign investors. Relative to India's weight in the global economy (10%), investors don't hold many Indian assets (5% of their EM bond portfolio). Not a bad initiative but the country needs a growth strategy.pic.twitter.com/2zRsl5kK1g
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Brazil's current account deficit is widening but we aren't too concerned. The trade balance still looks healthy. Imports have recovered somewhat from the recession but aren't growing fast at all.pic.twitter.com/Y89nc5X5L1
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Oil production in Venezuela recovered a bit in January. It may help the economy stabilize after years in free-fall but undoing the collapse of the oil sector looks difficult unless politics and policy change a lot.pic.twitter.com/aedIYaSkCO
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Growth in Mexico and South Africa disappointed yet again last year. They've under-performed EM peers for many years and, most worryingly, they show no long-term productivity growth at all.pic.twitter.com/CesRluqj29
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The parallel market premium in Argentina has risen sharply, in part because a rally in local-currency bonds incentivized people to get out. If many don't accept the AF20 exchange, expect more pressure on the parallel rate.pic.twitter.com/wjuWyKwQxH
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In 2003, Sars caused an important but temporary growth slowdown in EM Asia. However, capital flows didn't suffer in an obvious way. They dropped on impact but well within their usual volatility.
#coronaviruspic.twitter.com/nPhbvR7hVw
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Maduro announced foreign oil companies may be given more of a role in Venezuela. Under such an uncertain legal and institutional situation, it's unlikely that these steps can arrest the relentless decline in oil output that started two decades ago.pic.twitter.com/S6aRq5ApJR
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Argentina is entering debt restructuring. We've looked at past IMF programs that also began with high public debt. Cases involving debt restructuring typically saw very large decreases in the debt/GDP ratio 5 years down the road.pic.twitter.com/W0GWyRMYAX
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In 2003, Sars led to a sharp but short-lived drop in international travel in EM Asia. Trade in goods wasn't noticeably disrupted and continued recovering from the 2000-01 slowdown.
#CoronavirusOutbreakpic.twitter.com/LIH71CjGST
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Growth in China slowed markedly according to our activity tracker. Is it permanent? no, we think there's slack now. Core inflation adjusted for shocks such as oil prices has fallen, a sign that there's most likely a negative output gap.pic.twitter.com/ee7teXjx9P
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We aren't sure supply chains changed much yet in response to trade tensions. Investment in Asia ex China was weak in 2019 and shifting supply chains means big investments. Vietnam may be the exception as its manufacturing sector bucked the negative global trend. But it's smallpic.twitter.com/mznCXPnUf1
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India's shadow banking system isn't among the largest in EM but it is sizable. What perhaps stands out the most is that the exposure of commercial banks to shadow banks is large relative to other countries.pic.twitter.com/unqhbQuoRo
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The impacts of
#CoronavirusOutbreak are still uncertain. As a reference point, SARS made EM Asia growth fall quite a bit, albeit temporarily. Private consumption suffered the most. nCoV & SARS may well be different but they both caused fear of the unknown, weighing on the economypic.twitter.com/th03Toec3y
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