1/ Went ahead & got the Cook PVI for the 32 toss up districts. While I accept this measure isn’t an exact science, polls may be telling a different story in each district, each may have unique local issues, and candidates loved or loathed, I just had some comments on the race.
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2/ Only 2 of 32 districts are Dem leaning overall. FL26 is D+6 and PA7 is D+1. There are four “even” districts: CA10, CA25, CA39, and WA8. The other 26 toss ups are all GOP districts to some extent or another. So on a simple “go where PVI says they would”, R’s in good shape.
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3/ Of course, the districts don’t simply go where the PVI says they would by their partisanship. Some of these toss ups seem like a reach (KS2 is R+10, KY6 is R+9, TX7 is R+20, etc.) but others are entirely plausible. IA3 is only R+1, PA1 is only R+1, etc.
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I don’t know if Wikipedia updated in light of PA re-writing. There are only 2 PA toss ups anyway but good point: Wikipedia might be behind the times.
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