1/ Went ahead & got the Cook PVI for the 32 toss up districts. While I accept this measure isn’t an exact science, polls may be telling a different story in each district, each may have unique local issues, and candidates loved or loathed, I just had some comments on the race.
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3/ Of course, the districts don’t simply go where the PVI says they would by their partisanship. Some of these toss ups seem like a reach (KS2 is R+10, KY6 is R+9, TX7 is R+20, etc.) but others are entirely plausible. IA3 is only R+1, PA1 is only R+1, etc.
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4/ Would be interested to know how an R+20 district is a toss up. I don’t know enough about each individual district & how RCP decides how this works. Maybe I’ll look into that later In any event, as always it’s a question of turn out. R’s have partisan edge. But will they show?
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End of conversation
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