2/ Only 2 of 32 districts are Dem leaning overall. FL26 is D+6 and PA7 is D+1. There are four “even” districts: CA10, CA25, CA39, and WA8. The other 26 toss ups are all GOP districts to some extent or another. So on a simple “go where PVI says they would”, R’s in good shape.
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3/ Of course, the districts don’t simply go where the PVI says they would by their partisanship. Some of these toss ups seem like a reach (KS2 is R+10, KY6 is R+9, TX7 is R+20, etc.) but others are entirely plausible. IA3 is only R+1, PA1 is only R+1, etc.
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4/ Would be interested to know how an R+20 district is a toss up. I don’t know enough about each individual district & how RCP decides how this works. Maybe I’ll look into that later In any event, as always it’s a question of turn out. R’s have partisan edge. But will they show?
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So what’s your final house prediction?
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I don’t have one yet. I’m leaning toward Dems eek out control narrowly, but lot of time left.
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