Polling right now vs polling at the same time ahead of the 2006 midterms, the last midterm Dems won big.pic.twitter.com/2zs3EeINLa
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Polling right now vs polling at the same time ahead of the 2006 midterms, the last midterm Dems won big.pic.twitter.com/2zs3EeINLa
And by the way: this is 2006 redux. Going into those midterms, GOP had 233 seats (they have 235 today) & in 2006 Dems won 31 seats giving them the majority at 233. I’m not even sure if that was technically a “wave” but it was a very solid victory. They want to do that again.
The problem for them is (and I don’t think I’m just giving into wishful thinking saying this) the polling doesn’t bare it out right now. Compare the two charts above. They’re struggling to close the deal w/ the electorate. They aren’t where they were in 2006. A month to go.
In 2006 the RCP average had Dems at +11.5 & they came in at +7.9 Right now they aren’t even polling at 7.9, they’re polling at 6.6 Who knows what they’ll come in at even if they manage to hold 6.6 RCP average for the month That said, could see one of these in reverse. 2010.pic.twitter.com/mfpnUrjU9x
Also 2010 was the only midterm out of the last 4 where they overestimated republican support they usually overestimate dem support by 3
I don't follow RCP average anymore because of how much the polls are rigged.
Yea it’s tough. I want to remove obvious rigged polls but then I’m Karl Rove in 2012 “unskewing” the sacred polls. But you’re right: they’re rigged af.
2012 is excusable. No one predicted black support would be high like it was in 2008, but it was.
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