Polling right now vs polling at the same time ahead of the 2006 midterms, the last midterm Dems won big.pic.twitter.com/2zs3EeINLa
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Where the Dems just run away w/ it. Entirely possible. But a month out, I don’t see anything on the horizon. Have to wait & see what post-Kav polling does. Maybe that will cause a run away Dem rise. I’m doubtful, but that could be my biases.
Also 2010 was the only midterm out of the last 4 where they overestimated republican support they usually overestimate dem support by 3
Yes. Indeed.
I don't follow RCP average anymore because of how much the polls are rigged.
Yea it’s tough. I want to remove obvious rigged polls but then I’m Karl Rove in 2012 “unskewing” the sacred polls. But you’re right: they’re rigged af.
2012 is excusable. No one predicted black support would be high like it was in 2008, but it was.
The polls usually get more accurate right before the election, right now they're probably using very biased samples
Honestly I’m more cared for 2020 and 2022 when the senate race favors the Dems than I am about November
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