Polling right now vs polling at the same time ahead of the 2006 midterms, the last midterm Dems won big.pic.twitter.com/2zs3EeINLa
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The problem for them is (and I don’t think I’m just giving into wishful thinking saying this) the polling doesn’t bare it out right now. Compare the two charts above. They’re struggling to close the deal w/ the electorate. They aren’t where they were in 2006. A month to go.
In 2006 the RCP average had Dems at +11.5 & they came in at +7.9 Right now they aren’t even polling at 7.9, they’re polling at 6.6 Who knows what they’ll come in at even if they manage to hold 6.6 RCP average for the month That said, could see one of these in reverse. 2010.pic.twitter.com/mfpnUrjU9x
Where the Dems just run away w/ it. Entirely possible. But a month out, I don’t see anything on the horizon. Have to wait & see what post-Kav polling does. Maybe that will cause a run away Dem rise. I’m doubtful, but that could be my biases.
Is that true tho?
That is really bad news for the Dems.
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