And by the way: this is 2006 redux. Going into those midterms, GOP had 233 seats (they have 235 today) & in 2006 Dems won 31 seats giving them the majority at 233. I’m not even sure if that was technically a “wave” but it was a very solid victory. They want to do that again.
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The problem for them is (and I don’t think I’m just giving into wishful thinking saying this) the polling doesn’t bare it out right now. Compare the two charts above. They’re struggling to close the deal w/ the electorate. They aren’t where they were in 2006. A month to go.
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In 2006 the RCP average had Dems at +11.5 & they came in at +7.9 Right now they aren’t even polling at 7.9, they’re polling at 6.6 Who knows what they’ll come in at even if they manage to hold 6.6 RCP average for the month That said, could see one of these in reverse. 2010.pic.twitter.com/mfpnUrjU9x
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Where the Dems just run away w/ it. Entirely possible. But a month out, I don’t see anything on the horizon. Have to wait & see what post-Kav polling does. Maybe that will cause a run away Dem rise. I’m doubtful, but that could be my biases.
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They got 2012 horribly wrong if I remember correctly. Not to “well akchually” you: I take your word over the long term they’ve been a good pollster.
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