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SelimSeesYou's profile
Selim Bradley 🇺🇸
Selim Bradley 🇺🇸
Selim Bradley  🇺🇸
@SelimSeesYou

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Selim Bradley  🇺🇸

@SelimSeesYou

I will be watching you from the shadows.

Joined March 2013

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    1. Selim Bradley  🇺🇸‏ @SelimSeesYou Aug 18

      Selim Bradley  🇺🇸 Retweeted Hillary Clinton

      Ballsy move that didn’t pan out. Grab her by the p*ssy was Oct 7th. This tweet was Oct 26th. Trump had not surged yet in PA/MI. I don’t know what her internal numbers showed but I assume they were good if she’d go out & tweet this so confidently. We lived through a miracle.https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/791263939015376902 …

      Selim Bradley  🇺🇸 added,

      Hillary ClintonVerified account @HillaryClinton
      Happy birthday to this future president. pic.twitter.com/JT3HiBjYdj
      6 replies 3 retweets 37 likes
      Show this thread
      Selim Bradley  🇺🇸‏ @SelimSeesYou Aug 18

      I like to assume the media lies to us (they knew all along & didn’t correct their polls til the very end when they had to for credibility) but the campaigns have better internal data. Maybe not tho: this tweet implies she saw the same data we all did circa October 26th, 2016.

      9:55 PM - 18 Aug 2018
      • 6 Likes
      • Bagger Vance McGuirk William Hudson A Flemish Lion 🐸 hbd nrx 🐸 Boku no Vico
      4 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. Selim Bradley  🇺🇸‏ @SelimSeesYou Aug 18

          Circa October 26th FL was neck & neck (it always is tbh) but MN/WI were not even on the radar, MI/PA were comfortable 5+ points for Clinton. It was in the bag. Or so it appeared. You could see by the end tho she was panicking. Last minute rallies w/ Beyoncé etc. They saw it.

          2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Max 🐦 🌲‏ @AR_Maximum Aug 18
          Replying to @SelimSeesYou

          How much do you study this stuff?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Selim Bradley  🇺🇸‏ @SelimSeesYou Aug 18
          Replying to @AR_Maximum

          I went over it for months after the election. Wanted to know wtf happened. How it happened. I’m more familiar than most w/ the polling/counties/exit numbers. Not a wonk really. But I dived right into it all in the months after & know my way around this stuff now.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Boy Named Sioux‏ @WestCoastPole Aug 18
          Replying to @SelimSeesYou

          Campaigns definitely have internal data but they aren't necessarily better. The devil is always in survey weights and you don't really have a choice but to weight based on the demographics of the previous elections. You can't be sure if and how those will change.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Boy Named Sioux‏ @WestCoastPole Aug 18
          Replying to @WestCoastPole @SelimSeesYou

          In 2004, John Kerry's internal numbers were wrong, for instance, precisely because of wrong weighting

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Boku no Vico‏ @the_doge Aug 18
          Replying to @SelimSeesYou

          It was very close in the end. I think people are overconfident about 2020, but I would like to be wrong. However her internal numbers should still have reflected how close it was. I think this tweet was written by an intern and they didn't know how bad things were. Did Hillary?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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