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SelimSeesYou's profile
Selim Bradley 🇺🇸
Selim Bradley 🇺🇸
Selim Bradley  🇺🇸
@SelimSeesYou

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Selim Bradley  🇺🇸

@SelimSeesYou

I will be watching you from the shadows.

Joined March 2013

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    Selim Bradley  🇺🇸‏ @SelimSeesYou Aug 14

    Dems need to win 25 seats to take back House (193->218) Since 1934, the avg change is +23 seats for opposition party. 3 months to go & so much can happen but akchually technically they have to hit slightly above historical norms to squeak by & win anything resembling victory.

    12:06 PM - 14 Aug 2018
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    • ubiquitous NatCap grillgrilgrillL A Flemish Lion Battle Beagle 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 Senpai 3:16 🇺🇸 🚁 Iced 🇺🇸 Militant_Normal CONOR MCGROYPER 🎃𝕹𝖔𝖆𝖍🇮🇪
    5 replies 4 retweets 8 likes
      1. Selim Bradley  🇺🇸‏ @SelimSeesYou Aug 14

        The corrected version. ^

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      2. Selim Bradley  🇺🇸‏ @SelimSeesYou Aug 14

        Also: at least according to ballotpedia a “wave election” is a technical term. Mid-20s seat gain for Dems regains control of House (narrowly) & would be victory for them. They need gain of +50 to technically meet threshold of “wave election”.

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      3. Selim Bradley  🇺🇸‏ @SelimSeesYou Aug 14

        They netted 31 circa 2006, the last time they had a real big midterm win (against a deeply unpopular president).

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      2. Clyde Parker‏ @ColJSMosby Aug 14
        Replying to @SelimSeesYou

        They've been hitting above the turnout norms over the last year, seems like they'll get a narrow victory at the very least.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. 4DChessMaster‏ @TheMaster2166 Aug 14
        Replying to @ColJSMosby @SelimSeesYou

        It is easier to attack one district at a time than all across the board. I agree that they have been doing well so far, but it’s not over yet.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Clyde Parker‏ @ColJSMosby Aug 14
        Replying to @TheMaster2166 @SelimSeesYou

        Of course not. It is months away and a special election isn't the same as the mid-terms. Just lots of GOP-folk are still underestimating November in my opinion. (I'm also convinced the GOPe possibly including Ronna are intentionally sabotaging it)

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. 4DChessMaster‏ @TheMaster2166 Aug 14
        Replying to @ColJSMosby @SelimSeesYou

        A lot of Trump people vouch for Ronna and her operations. The principle problem is enthusiasm, although we have data that suggests a Trump rally can close a 5-6 point gap. I’m not predicting a “red wave,” but I’m not pessimistic either.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Clyde Parker‏ @ColJSMosby Aug 14
        Replying to @TheMaster2166 @SelimSeesYou

        And I've never seen why they do so! Yes, Trump can close a gap, if the GOP pulls this off it'll be because of Trump dragging them across the finish line.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      7. 4DChessMaster‏ @TheMaster2166 Aug 14
        Replying to @ColJSMosby @SelimSeesYou

        Absolutely agree with your ending statement. Still, we have some good candidates in California, and I’m seeing opportunities in NV and MN to offset suburban losses.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      8. End of conversation
      1. CONOR MCGROYPER‏ @DABIGDOGRETURN1 Aug 14
        Replying to @SelimSeesYou

        We long past norms however.

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      1. Corey Wompodowski‏ @wompodowski Aug 14
        Replying to @SelimSeesYou

        R are now polling +1 seat in the senate while D have a smaller 3.9 lead on the generic ballot with three months to go.

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