The corrected version. ^
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Also: at least according to ballotpedia a “wave election” is a technical term. Mid-20s seat gain for Dems regains control of House (narrowly) & would be victory for them. They need gain of +50 to technically meet threshold of “wave election”.
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They netted 31 circa 2006, the last time they had a real big midterm win (against a deeply unpopular president).
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They've been hitting above the turnout norms over the last year, seems like they'll get a narrow victory at the very least.
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It is easier to attack one district at a time than all across the board. I agree that they have been doing well so far, but it’s not over yet.
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Of course not. It is months away and a special election isn't the same as the mid-terms. Just lots of GOP-folk are still underestimating November in my opinion. (I'm also convinced the GOPe possibly including Ronna are intentionally sabotaging it)
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A lot of Trump people vouch for Ronna and her operations. The principle problem is enthusiasm, although we have data that suggests a Trump rally can close a 5-6 point gap. I’m not predicting a “red wave,” but I’m not pessimistic either.
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And I've never seen why they do so! Yes, Trump can close a gap, if the GOP pulls this off it'll be because of Trump dragging them across the finish line.
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Absolutely agree with your ending statement. Still, we have some good candidates in California, and I’m seeing opportunities in NV and MN to offset suburban losses.
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We long past norms however.
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R are now polling +1 seat in the senate while D have a smaller 3.9 lead on the generic ballot with three months to go.
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