I’m not so sure about this bluewave. The Dems big win was in 2006. Those were the glory days. They won House popular vote 42.3 million to 35.9 million. I understand the population is larger (and browner) now. But I’m skeptical that Republican numbers will remain that low...
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If Trump plays his cards right. In 2010 House GOP got 44.8 mil & 40.1 mil in 2014. I would guess enthusiasm is higher now than it was in those two years (again: as long as Trump keeps up the momentum). Dems got 39mil/35.6mil respectively in those off year races. So they...
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Need Bush post-Katrina disaffection among GOP to sink their numbers into 35mil range (doesn’t seem likely) + angry enough electorate to break 40mil (the 2006 high water mark). The second is more plausible but again: they need both simultaneously to win this. I don’t see it.
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In the Bush-Obama-Trump modern era, 2006 was their best off-year House performance. They made additional gains in 2008. By 2010 it all fell apart & they never recovered.
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