Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
SeanTrende's profile
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
Verified account
@SeanTrende

Tweets

Sean T at RCPVerified account

@SeanTrende

Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.

Joined March 2010

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 12 Nov 2021

      So with Fairfax County releasing precinct-level data that included absentees, I was able to run an ecological inference analysis. This follows up on @PatrickRuffini 's tweet yesterday about the biggest pro-GOP swings coming in heavily Hispanic areas. 1/

      10 replies 33 retweets 110 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 12 Nov 2021

      Anyway, I do want to emphasize before we start that these are point estimates with error margins (it's Bayesian, so technically credible intervals). Those are real, and the uncertainty they (are supposed to) convey are real. 2/

      2 replies 4 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 12 Nov 2021

      Regardless, most racial groups are a model of stability. In 2017, 2020 and 2021, Blacks went 84%,93%, and 81% Democratic in those years, respectively. Non-Hispanic Whites were 65%, 64%, and 65% Democratic, while "other" were 85%, 68% and 63% Democratic. 3/

      3 replies 7 retweets 29 likes
      Show this thread
      Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 12 Nov 2021

      Hispanic voters, on the other hand, went 82%, 80% and 49% Democratic. Again, I emphasize the reality of error margins, and the error margins are pretty large for 2021. But, they don't include the 82% or 80%. 4/

      4:43 AM - 12 Nov 2021
      • 16 Retweets
      • 68 Likes
      • MateotheOverlord Political Election Projections Sam Rasoul MilkMolotov Julia D Mahoney Kirara Decline 🧺 ToomerPosterInChief🚄🇮🇹🇻🇦🧱 MJ CA Conservative 🌐
      6 replies 16 retweets 68 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 12 Nov 2021

          So I don't think you should take that 49% as gospel, and we'll be able to do a better analysis once we get the statewide file with absentees allocated in a few days. 5/5

          2 replies 2 retweets 30 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 12 Nov 2021

          But while all the evidence of a pro-GOP swing is flawed, and uncertainty is real, at a certain point the pile of evidence just high enough that it becomes unlikely that *all* of the analyses are wrong. 6/5

          7 replies 9 retweets 69 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. Mike Mitchell‏ @MikeMitchNH 12 Nov 2021
          Replying to @SeanTrende

          Break it down by education and I think I can guess which Hispanic voters fled.

          5 replies 0 retweets 1 like
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2. Build Back BITTER‏ @EnslaveWords 12 Nov 2021
          Replying to @SeanTrende

          Hardly surprising. After 5 to 10 years, immigrants as a group tend to drift toward the GOP on top of being wary of the next wave of migrants.pic.twitter.com/jLdSefzfNn

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. The405toThe101‏ @Lorrainespeaks 12 Nov 2021
          Replying to @EnslaveWords @SeanTrende

          Sounds like a bunch of immigrants and first gen Americans are saying, “I got mine but now none left for you.”

          4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2022 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info