So with Fairfax County releasing precinct-level data that included absentees, I was able to run an ecological inference analysis. This follows up on @PatrickRuffini
's tweet yesterday about the biggest pro-GOP swings coming in heavily Hispanic areas. 1/
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So I don't think you should take that 49% as gospel, and we'll be able to do a better analysis once we get the statewide file with absentees allocated in a few days. 5/5
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But while all the evidence of a pro-GOP swing is flawed, and uncertainty is real, at a certain point the pile of evidence just high enough that it becomes unlikely that *all* of the analyses are wrong. 6/5
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Break it down by education and I think I can guess which Hispanic voters fled.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Hardly surprising. After 5 to 10 years, immigrants as a group tend to drift toward the GOP on top of being wary of the next wave of migrants.pic.twitter.com/jLdSefzfNn
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Sounds like a bunch of immigrants and first gen Americans are saying, “I got mine but now none left for you.”
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