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SeanTrende's profile
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
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@SeanTrende

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Sean T at RCPVerified account

@SeanTrende

Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.

Joined March 2010

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    Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 16 Dec 2020

    Crazy to think that Thurmond's strategy of throwing the election to the House in 1948 where Dixiecrats could play kingmaker came 10k voters in OH/CA away from working. 1/

    10:44 AM - 16 Dec 2020
    • 116 Retweets
    • 569 Likes
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    24 replies 116 retweets 569 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 16 Dec 2020

        I mean, it's probably one of the most consequential near-misses to our modern political timeline. Truman gets 303 E.V.s in 1948. He wins OH by 7,100 votes and CA by 17,900. If that flips no one gets a majority and it goes to the House. 2/

        6 replies 10 retweets 124 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 16 Dec 2020

        After the 1948 elections, the Democrats controlled 25 House delegations, 19 for Republicans, and 4 split. But 11 of the House delegations were controlled by Southern Democrats. 3/

        4 replies 9 retweets 80 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 16 Dec 2020

        Maybe Rs and Ds would have banded together to elect Truman, perhaps with Warren as the vice president. 4/

        4 replies 7 retweets 67 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 16 Dec 2020

        But the other possibility is that the Dixiecrats would have extracted concessions from the Democrats on Civil Rights. *Everything* changes in that universe. 5/

        3 replies 8 retweets 104 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 16 Dec 2020

        One of the reasons that Truman adopted the CR platform in '48 is that Rs had made strong showings with the African-American community in '46, raising the possibility that AA Dem attachment from '34-'44 was an FDR-specific phenomenon. 6/

        2 replies 8 retweets 98 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 16 Dec 2020

        So a major walkback on CR might have re-cemented AA attachment to Rs, and forestalled the Southern realignment. 7/

        1 reply 6 retweets 85 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 16 Dec 2020

        Either way, it would have been a display of power by the Dixiecrats, leaving a Democratic Party terrified in future elections. Just a massive "what if." 8/8

        8 replies 7 retweets 108 likes
        Show this thread
      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Ron Fournier‏Verified account @ron_fournier 16 Dec 2020
        Replying to @SeanTrende

        Really? Wow. Tell me more

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 16 Dec 2020
        Replying to @ron_fournier

        Done!

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jacob Alperin-Sheriff  🐵‏ @DemocraticLuntz 16 Dec 2020
        Replying to @SeanTrende

        Weird shit happens when you have 4 candidates getting a sizeable number of votes

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Jacob Alperin-Sheriff  🐵‏ @DemocraticLuntz 16 Dec 2020
        Replying to @DemocraticLuntz @SeanTrende

        I only just learned today that the whole left coast was the left coast to an extent even in 1948, other than the Jews of New York (he was VERY VERY pro-Zionist movement/Israel upon declaration) and the NPL people/remaining mining leftist in NoDak/Montana, it was the left coast

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Show replies

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