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SeanTrende's profile
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
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@SeanTrende

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Sean T at RCPVerified account

@SeanTrende

Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.

Joined March 2010

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    Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 8 Nov 2020

    doing a very back-of-the envelope imputation for unopposed seats leads to Ds leading the popular vote for Congress 50.18%-49.82%

    7:42 AM - 8 Nov 2020
    • 43 Retweets
    • 324 Likes
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    35 replies 43 retweets 324 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 8 Nov 2020

        People are confused by this "VERY BACK-OF-THE-ENVELOPE" calculation, so let me explain. There are 29 districts where Rs or Ds never appeared on the ballot, either because of a top-2 primary (in CA, WA and LA) that Rs or Ds failed to make, or b/c the cand. is unopposed. 2/

        3 replies 0 retweets 31 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 8 Nov 2020

        So you have districts like WA-10, where Ds get 250k votes, where the "real" vote total would be more like 175k-75k if an R had been on the ballot, or TN-05 where Ds and Rs get zero, but would get around 200k and 100k, respectively, if Cooper had been opposed. 3/

        1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 8 Nov 2020

        There are sophisticated ways to deal with this, but they would require all the votes to be counted and/or data that we don't yet have (like Presidential vote by CD). Hence the very rough calculation. 4/

        2 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 8 Nov 2020

        And it goes like this: CA-38 was unopposed. Find the last race where Linda Sanchez drew opposition, which was 2018. Multiply the vote totals for Rs and Ds by 1.26, to account for the fact that fewer votes were cast in 2016 than in 2020. 5/

        2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 8 Nov 2020

        Then shave 3.5% off of D vote totals and and 3.5% to R vote totals to account for 2018 being a year where Ds won by 8.5% (without using imputations) and this being one where they'll probably end up 1% or so using imputations. 6/

        3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 8 Nov 2020

        You end up with 169k votes for Sanchez and 82k votes for [Republican], which actually is a reasonable heuristic (Obama and Hillary got about two-thirds of the vote here). Repeat as needed (so in AL-05 Rs get 207k votes and Ds get 123k, instead of zero and zero). 7/

        2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 8 Nov 2020

        Like I said, as we get better data, we can generate better estimates. And these counts will change as we get mail-in ballots from NY, CA, and elsewhere. One interesting thing: This is a lot less dramatic than 2018, where imputation knocks a full point off the D p.v. margin. 8/

        6 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 8 Nov 2020

        Finally, this illustrates some of the problems with using popular vote counts as fine-grained instruments, *especially* for Congress. They're sensitive to things like this, as well as things like candidate quality, fundraising, etc. 9/9

        3 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
        Show this thread
      10. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Helvering Davis‏ @low_tex 8 Nov 2020
        Replying to @SeanTrende

        interesting, suggests the maps are not that inefficient for the Democrats this year?

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. PaSwede‏ @PaSwede 8 Nov 2020
        Replying to @low_tex @SeanTrende

        The skew in CA, NY, and MA (and maybe a few other states) largely offset Republican Gerrymanders elsewhere.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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