So this certainly isn't something I care enough about to go to the mattresses over, especially since we aren't living in Rick & Morty (unfortunately) and don't get to explore other timelines. But let me explain: 1/
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Let's first assume that if Trump wins the two Georgia Senate seats are very, very difficult holds. He isn't on the ballot, but an African-American and a suburban-friendly candidate are. And suburbs probably continue their leftward march if Trump is POTUS. 2/
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I also think the "keep a check on Biden" argument plays well in that event, and the basic rightward lean of Georgia comes into play if Biden wins. 3/
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So where does it leave us? I think +AL, -CO/AZ/ME are more-or-less baked in unless Trump *really* overperforms the polls. That's 49 R Senators. I don't think that the GOP loses other seats, though, if Trump wins. 4/
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At that point, if I'm right about the dynamic for the GA race, the GOP loses. Put differently, it's actually sort of tricksy for the GOP to hold the Senate under Trump (again, if I'm right about GA). 5/
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That's basically the argument. I think falling into the gap where Trump wins IA and NC and pulls Ernst/Tillis/others over the finish line but loses the Midwest is more likely than the scenario where the GOP wins the GA runoffs after a Trump win and/or ME/AZ flip.
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D8mn that's hot.
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If Biden loses, the Democratic political spirit will be too broken to work for a January runoff
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All other things on election night being equal, but the range of potential Biden wins suggests maybe less so
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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If that scenario happens, Democrats may as well just take the oath in January and adjourn until 2023.
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lol, it Trump is reelected, 2023 is meaningless. We won't have any more elections.
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