Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
SeanTrende's profile
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
Verified account
@SeanTrende

Tweets

Sean T at RCPVerified account

@SeanTrende

Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.

Joined March 2010

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 30 Oct 2020

    Smoldering hot take: Because of runoff dynamics, Schumer has a better position of being majority leader under Trump than under Biden.

    2:07 PM - 30 Oct 2020
    • 13 Retweets
    • 217 Likes
    • dasnva Gamer with a heart Mark Tyson Rick V Donna Shortridge got her vaccination! Rajiv Nunna Zornorph PH Will Bredderman
    54 replies 13 retweets 217 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 30 Oct 2020

        So this certainly isn't something I care enough about to go to the mattresses over, especially since we aren't living in Rick & Morty (unfortunately) and don't get to explore other timelines. But let me explain: 1/

        4 replies 0 retweets 33 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 30 Oct 2020

        Let's first assume that if Trump wins the two Georgia Senate seats are very, very difficult holds. He isn't on the ballot, but an African-American and a suburban-friendly candidate are. And suburbs probably continue their leftward march if Trump is POTUS. 2/

        3 replies 0 retweets 29 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 30 Oct 2020

        I also think the "keep a check on Biden" argument plays well in that event, and the basic rightward lean of Georgia comes into play if Biden wins. 3/

        7 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 30 Oct 2020

        So where does it leave us? I think +AL, -CO/AZ/ME are more-or-less baked in unless Trump *really* overperforms the polls. That's 49 R Senators. I don't think that the GOP loses other seats, though, if Trump wins. 4/

        6 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 30 Oct 2020

        At that point, if I'm right about the dynamic for the GA race, the GOP loses. Put differently, it's actually sort of tricksy for the GOP to hold the Senate under Trump (again, if I'm right about GA). 5/

        4 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 30 Oct 2020

        That's basically the argument. I think falling into the gap where Trump wins IA and NC and pulls Ernst/Tillis/others over the finish line but loses the Midwest is more likely than the scenario where the GOP wins the GA runoffs after a Trump win and/or ME/AZ flip.

        5 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
        Show this thread
      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 30 Oct 2020
        Replying to @SeanTrende

        D8mn that's hot.

        2 replies 0 retweets 34 likes
      3. RayGattle‏ @RayGattle 30 Oct 2020
        Replying to @ForecasterEnten @SeanTrende

        If Biden loses, the Democratic political spirit will be too broken to work for a January runoff

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Jacob Alperin-Sheriff  🐵‏ @DemocraticLuntz 30 Oct 2020
        Replying to @SeanTrende

        All other things on election night being equal, but the range of potential Biden wins suggests maybe less so

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. New conversation
      2. Scott Gaspari‏ @sgaspari 30 Oct 2020
        Replying to @SeanTrende

        If that scenario happens, Democrats may as well just take the oath in January and adjourn until 2023.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Joe Cooper‏ @swelljoe 30 Oct 2020
        Replying to @sgaspari @SeanTrende

        lol, it Trump is reelected, 2023 is meaningless. We won't have any more elections.

        3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies

    Loading seems to be taking a while.

    Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

      Promoted Tweet

      false

      • © 2021 Twitter
      • About
      • Help Center
      • Terms
      • Privacy policy
      • Cookies
      • Ads info