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SeanTrende's profile
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
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@SeanTrende

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Sean T at RCPVerified account

@SeanTrende

Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.

Joined March 2010

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    Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 11 Oct 2020

    So in the wake of my interview with @IChotiner and pieces the past couple of weeks, people have asked why I am bullish on Trump. The answer is . . . I'm not, really. I would not even think to take an even-money bet on Trump winning right now. 1/

    7:22 AM - 11 Oct 2020
    • 49 Retweets
    • 283 Likes
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    22 replies 49 retweets 283 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 11 Oct 2020

        I'm probably more bullish on him relative to @NateSilver538 's 14%, but we can debate the relative differences of an 14% chance of someone winning versus, say, a 20-25% chance of someone winning. But let's take Nate's 14% chance. 2/

        5 replies 1 retweet 133 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 11 Oct 2020

        That translates to about a 1-in-7 chance. Let's call it 1-in-8 to make the math easy. We did this ad nauseum in 2016, seemingly to little effect, but that 1-in-8 chance is roughly the same chance of having three kids, all boys. That's not unusual. Trust me! 3/

        15 replies 23 retweets 287 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 11 Oct 2020

        If you rounded the other way, to 1-in-6, you'd have the chances of losing at Russian Roulette. Again, if you were playing Russian Roulette, you'd be really nervous, and probably focused on the ways you could lose, rather than win. 4/

        19 replies 39 retweets 446 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 11 Oct 2020

        So the question is, "what does that one" look like? My story for that is basically "the polls tighten modestly, and then we have a poll error of roughly the magnitude of 2016." I know the arguments why that wouldn't happen . . . 5/

        11 replies 2 retweets 139 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 11 Oct 2020

        Obviously if we *expected* that to happen we wouldn't have Trump as the underdog. But there are things consistent with that story, and they are worth pointing out. It's further complicated by the fact that, by the numbers, this has been a very boring race. 6/

        4 replies 1 retweet 128 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 11 Oct 2020

        The story for "why Biden will win" just isn't that interesting, but I nevertheless forced myself to write it up for this week. We should probably spend more time telling that story, since it's the more likely story, but telling contrarian stories is more interesting. 7/

        7 replies 11 retweets 150 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 11 Oct 2020

        It's also better to write/analyze the "why Trump could win" pieces as a check on my own biases, to keep me from rounding that 14% (or 20-25% chance) down to zero, as I basically did for much of 2015-mid-2016. 8/

        9 replies 6 retweets 164 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 11 Oct 2020

        FWIW, I *would* take the under on Biden winning by 9-10%, for the reasons in my pieces. That still translates to a comfortable Biden win, though. 9/9

        17 replies 8 retweets 154 likes
        Show this thread
      10. End of conversation
      1. M. Paul Murphy‏ @M_PaulMurphy 11 Oct 2020
        Replying to @SeanTrende @IChotiner

        It's because they're not actually getting past the headline. If they'd actually read your stuff, they'd get it.

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. The West Virginian‏ @TheWstVirginian 11 Oct 2020
        Replying to @SeanTrende @IChotiner

        The West Virginian Retweeted Sean T at RCP

        It’s because you selectively acknowledge only certain polls. Duh.https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1315296703961075713 …

        The West Virginian added,

        Sean T at RCPVerified account @SeanTrende
        So in the wake of my interview with @IChotiner and pieces the past couple of weeks, people have asked why I am bullish on Trump. The answer is . . . I'm not, really. I would not even think to take an even-money bet on Trump winning right now. 1/
        Show this thread
        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
      3. Show replies

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