People really underestimate how many people live in rural/small town areas east of the hundredth meridian (so wi, oh get redder), and overestimate how many live west of it (tx, az get bluer)
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As a Houston metro resident, I agree, but voter turnout is much lower here than other swing states. And registration is harder - one of very few states that still doesn’t allow online. If turnout spikes 10% despite that, it’s a jump ball.
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If turnout spikes 3% it's a jump ball.
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The GOP electoral college advantage dissipates pretty quickly if TX and AZ are in play. I'm still skeptical though of a scenario where these states are alternate routes - i.e. Trump holds upper midwest but D's take TX to compensate. Blue TX in 20 = rout everywhere.
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I mean, it's also going blue for the reasons people said before (increased diversity) but they're not keeping the margins among whites that they need.
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Tarrant County is a good reference point on this. It was solid red until unexpectedly flipping in 2018. The change in the suburbs is drastic.
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Hays & Williamson adjacent to Travis as well.
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