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SeanTrende's profile
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
Sean T at RCP
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@SeanTrende

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Sean T at RCPVerified account

@SeanTrende

Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.

Joined March 2010

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    1. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 5 Jun 2019

      Sean T at RCP Retweeted Chris Hayes

      First, it is worth noting that in a poll of 50 states you expect two or three extreme outliers, but second, I think this line of argument misconstrued Trump's 2016 coalition. It's a coalition of whites without college degrees, some whites with college degrees/nonwhites 1/https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1136280450559873025 …

      Sean T at RCP added,

      Chris HayesVerified account @chrislhayes
      I absolutely get why everyone is skeptical of Trump ever losing parts of his coalition because of his actual policies, but the Iowa numbers here are 👀 https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/ 
      12 replies 24 retweets 84 likes
      Show this thread
      Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 5 Jun 2019

      And then suburbanites who voted R in 2016 because (a) they always did (b) they didn't like Clinton and/or (c) asked themselves "how bad could it be". Slippage among that third group shows up everywhere, including in Des Moines suburbs. 2/

      8:28 AM - 5 Jun 2019
      • 26 Retweets
      • 125 Likes
      • Stately Plump Buck PhillyDem🌐🇺🇸🇮🇱🇱🇧 Draven Laura Leach Reuben Rodriguez KathiInCali (@🏠) Maureen Lyons Jim. Stuart Widro
      18 replies 26 retweets 125 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 5 Jun 2019

          Finally, to the extent 2016 was and/or 2020 will be about marginal whites without college degrees showing up to vote in surprising numbers, that won't show up in an RV poll 3/

          2 replies 12 retweets 69 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 5 Jun 2019

          In the big picture, I don't think Rs and to an extent even Ds fully appreciate the existential threat suburban decline poses to the Republican Party. There are VERY few red states that can't flip because of it. 4/

          24 replies 81 retweets 276 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 5 Jun 2019

          The best thing Rs have going for them is the possibility that in the next few cycles Democrats nominate someone like Sanders or perhaps Warren who makes these suburbanites nervous enough on economic issues to offset the damage Trump is doing. 5/5

          29 replies 35 retweets 106 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. Andrew S.‏ @shoutingboy 5 Jun 2019
          Replying to @SeanTrende

          And one might expect that some of that slippage will reverse when Trump is running against a particular Democrat and not an unnamed Democrat.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Chris Hayes‏Verified account @chrislhayes 5 Jun 2019
          Replying to @SeanTrende

          Yeah, wish we had more granular data.

          2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
        3. Matt S‏ @mts312 5 Jun 2019
          Replying to @chrislhayes @SeanTrende

          The above⬆️ could be a permanent/pinned tweet for you @chrislhayes

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Tim Miller‏Verified account @Timodc 5 Jun 2019
          Replying to @SeanTrende

          I’d like to see some data comparing the “how bad could it be” Trump voters who have soured vs the “I can’t stomach him” McMullin/johnson/write in/no vote crowd for whom he’s exceeded expectations. I have no clue which group is bigger / more likely to vote for him in 20

          4 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        3. James Stalnaker‏ @jstalnaker1 5 Jun 2019
          Replying to @Timodc @SeanTrende

          Voted McMullin, I like the judges and tax policy, I'm still never voting for Trump. Would probably vote for Biden if that's the matchup.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Kwabena Smith‏ @KwabSmith 5 Jun 2019
          Replying to @SeanTrende @NormOrnstein

          Here's hoping the last two plus years have sobered some people up. Barring severe foreign interference, come 2021 we will have the president we deserve....one way or the other.....

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Dan Wholihan‏ @DWholihan 5 Jun 2019
          Replying to @SeanTrende

          Define "suburbs." I can name a bunch of different suburbs moving in different political directions for different reasons. Parma. Wyandotte. Burton. Bloomfield Twp. Hoboken. Camden. Arlington Heights. Novi. St Clair Shores. Warren. Shelby Twp. Cape Coral. All very different places

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dan Wholihan‏ @DWholihan 5 Jun 2019
          Replying to @DWholihan @SeanTrende

          The point is, "suburban decline" is not necessarily correct. We are getting smoked and major declines in the Bloomfield Twps and Arlington Heights areas of this county as well as places like Novi and Hoboken. That IS a problem. Camden is what it is. We are gaining in the Parmas.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
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