First, it is worth noting that in a poll of 50 states you expect two or three extreme outliers, but second, I think this line of argument misconstrued Trump's 2016 coalition. It's a coalition of whites without college degrees, some whites with college degrees/nonwhites 1/https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1136280450559873025 …
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Finally, to the extent 2016 was and/or 2020 will be about marginal whites without college degrees showing up to vote in surprising numbers, that won't show up in an RV poll 3/
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In the big picture, I don't think Rs and to an extent even Ds fully appreciate the existential threat suburban decline poses to the Republican Party. There are VERY few red states that can't flip because of it. 4/
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The best thing Rs have going for them is the possibility that in the next few cycles Democrats nominate someone like Sanders or perhaps Warren who makes these suburbanites nervous enough on economic issues to offset the damage Trump is doing. 5/5
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And one might expect that some of that slippage will reverse when Trump is running against a particular Democrat and not an unnamed Democrat.
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Yeah, wish we had more granular data.
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The above
could be a permanent/pinned tweet for you @chrislhayes
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I’d like to see some data comparing the “how bad could it be” Trump voters who have soured vs the “I can’t stomach him” McMullin/johnson/write in/no vote crowd for whom he’s exceeded expectations. I have no clue which group is bigger / more likely to vote for him in 20
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Voted McMullin, I like the judges and tax policy, I'm still never voting for Trump. Would probably vote for Biden if that's the matchup.
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Here's hoping the last two plus years have sobered some people up. Barring severe foreign interference, come 2021 we will have the president we deserve....one way or the other.....
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Define "suburbs." I can name a bunch of different suburbs moving in different political directions for different reasons. Parma. Wyandotte. Burton. Bloomfield Twp. Hoboken. Camden. Arlington Heights. Novi. St Clair Shores. Warren. Shelby Twp. Cape Coral. All very different places
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The point is, "suburban decline" is not necessarily correct. We are getting smoked and major declines in the Bloomfield Twps and Arlington Heights areas of this county as well as places like Novi and Hoboken. That IS a problem. Camden is what it is. We are gaining in the Parmas.
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