Sean T at RCPVerified account

@SeanTrende

Sr. Elections Analyst at RCP. Co-Author, Almanac Am. Pols. 2014. Recovering Attorney. If you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention.

Joined March 2010
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    4 Jun 2017

    *opens twitter* *reads first few tweets* *shakes head* *closes twitter*

    25 replies 110 retweets 779 likes
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  2. Retweeted
    18 hours ago

    omg, he was into HAARP. This is one of my favorite conspiracy theories. It's got everything. Secret government programs, weather control, secret wars with the Russians and Nikola Tesla.

    The alleged bomber also tweeted a ton about chemtrail conspiracies.
    8 replies 24 retweets 62 likes
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  3. Retweeted
    15 hours ago

    Wear a black dress shirt and a red tie and people will know you’re dressed as either a libertarian or an Olive Garden host

    So, what is the most Libertarian Halloween costume you can think of?
    51 replies 150 retweets 1,253 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    20 hours ago

    Nearly all data from Day 6 of 14 in. Not much has changed, folks. It's essentially tied. No waves. The Democrats are going to need every bit of that Clark ballot firewall to offset the GOP's rural performance. Microcosm of country: Urban vs. rural.

    28 replies 71 retweets 84 likes
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  5. 18 hours ago

    This last point is very, very, very true. I've met many people who are very obviously capable of appreciating the wrongness of their actions, but who nevertheless scare the pants off of me.

    4 replies 19 retweets 52 likes
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  6. 22 hours ago

    Curious—why is turkey putting the screws to Saudi Arabia? I’m assuming there is a geopolitical backstory here?

    27 replies 2 retweets 29 likes
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  7. 23 hours ago

    Likewise, it's questionable whether the Democrats would have flipped their stance on Civil Rights but for the growing influence of African-Americans in key northern cities in the 30s and 40s. Again, I think the critique in the OP is reasonable, just incomplete. 3/3

    4 replies 9 likes
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  8. 23 hours ago

    was that it actually amplified the concerns of non-white groups. To wit, the concerns of Cuban-Americans would not receive nearly as much attention if they were uniformly distributed, as opposed to concentrated in Florida. 2/

    3 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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  9. 23 hours ago

    The gathering conventional wisdom that the Electoral College is (presently) biased against nonwhites because they are concentrated in a few states is a reasonable argument. At the same time, not so long ago one of the defense of the EC 1/

    5 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
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  10. 23 hours ago

    This is true.

    Whatever ends up happening in the end, Hugin's candidacy is working out as well as Rs ever could have hoped for.
    2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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  11. Retweeted
    23 hours ago

    D internal so big grain of salt BUT Reed, quite surprisingly, came pretty close to losing in 2012. Have had him listed at Likely (not Safe) R for a long time this cycle because of it

    : Tom Reed (R-inc) 49% (+2) Tracy Mitrano (D) 47% / (D) 10/23-24
    15 replies 24 retweets 88 likes
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  12. Retweeted
    23 hours ago

    Happy Halloween, !

    1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
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  13. 23 hours ago

    Things with a 10% chance of happening happen 10% of the time.

    Replying to @SeanTrende
    538 has Menendez at 90% odds right now. Would be stunned if they were that far off. Menendez is so awful, but it's New Jersey and I can't see them electing a Republican in this election cycle.
    17 replies 16 retweets 99 likes
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  14. 23 hours ago

    That's the R path to victory in NJ. Wouldn't bet on it.

    Replying to @SeanTrende @JohnJHarwood
    Like a reverse Doug Jones situation
    6 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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  15. 23 hours ago

    Democratic groups haven't dumped $6M on this race because they think it is in the bag. I don't thiink it's a tossup, except under the definition of TU that includes TX and TN (which Cook does). But there's a path to R victory I didn't see a month ago.

    Replying to @SeanTrende
    This Nate Silver piece from last year really informs my perspective on the "inside scoop," whether it's internal polling or other private campaign data.
    5 replies 3 retweets 15 likes
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  16. Retweeted
    Oct 25

    That’s.....that’s not how lawyering works

    This entire story is troubling, but especially this
    17 replies 26 retweets 150 likes
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  17. Retweeted
    Oct 26

    FWIW, this is what undermining the legitimacy of the Supreme Court looks like

    114 replies 580 retweets 1,581 likes
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  18. Oct 26

    With that said, never forget that this is the NJ-GOP and Senate races since 1976.

    22 replies 15 retweets 126 likes
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  19. Oct 26

    Wow. Cook moves NJ-Sen to TU.

    47 replies 154 retweets 560 likes
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  20. Retweeted
    Oct 25

    I could watch this all day.

    3,418 replies 86,484 retweets 270,642 likes
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  21. Oct 25

    Signed the prenup!

    These three little words are a big turn-on
    5 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
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