Sean Lavery

Similarly, Soleimani's death had a predictable impact on US defense stock prices and oil prices. But, information complexity results in a reduction in the velocity at which the information travels. With BTC, the information is not simple and therefore doesn’t travel fast...

The complex understanding of why most central banks should no longer be trusted with monetary policy is not akin to news of a drought or an Iranian general's death. This information is travelling through the market like a 10GB file in 1997.

This destroys the concept of ceteris paribus. The news doesn't travel through a static market nor are its participants static. And each of these layers compounds the effects of the other.

The idea of all else being equal becomes total nonsense because nothing will be equal for two investors. Everyone gets the information (has the aha moment) across a very broad time spectrum.

I would argue that bitcoin's price volatility is actually the work of an incredibly efficient market handling incredibly complex information IF you treat 2010-2030 like you would the first 15 minutes of markets opening on simple info.

But, you have to adjust the time frame proportional to the complexity of the information.

This all snowballs to the conclusion that all of our intuitions point us towards in the first place: the time horizon for bitcoin price maturity for its two theses are 1) 2-15 years as a gold competitor/digital store of value ($1-8T+ market cap)... and...

2) 10-50 years for a global reserve currency ($100T+ mc) Understanding the value of bitcoin enough to make a confident investment decision takes an incredible amount of time and energy.

The halving is priced-in in the sense that it will not cause a linear and uninterrupted price increase from the moment supply is impacted. It's priced in for the existing market for bitcoin.

But it ultimately is not priced in because nothing about bitcoin is priced in. Demand will continue to increase. This will interact predictably with supply if we look back on the chart 10 years from now. It's not priced in for the market of tomorrow.

The market hasn't internalized the change in supply because the market, broadly speaking, still doesn't understand bitcoin. Almost at all. The market for bitcoin is not some static entity.

Remember that these time frames make this a unique market. You have individuals with changing time preferences interacting with new information & a changing market over a 25 year period.

Example: Persons A, B, & C all share extreme conviction in BTC Thesis 1 playing out by 2035 when they have their aha moment but are similarly hesitant within a tighter time frame (this is already unnaturally simplified)..

Person A had his 'aha moment' in 2016. He bought with conviction as a hodler at $1k. In Dec 2017, he found out his wife was pregnant. Given a potential 17 year time frame, he sold @$14k because he valued raising his kids in a nice home that he and his wife owned and would keep.

A pays cash for his home - twitter cries of high time preference be damned - and starts humbly stacking sats all over again.

Person B has an aha moment in Dec 2017 and buys A's btc at 14k with extreme conviction - levering 2x. Person C buys B's bitcoin when it drops by 51% late 2018 while person B starts stacking all over again but very slowly because he had inherited $100k but only earns minimum wage.

Person C bought around $7k in late 2018 and was hodling with extreme conviction until... you see where this is going. Persons D through Z only take the time to understand bitcoin's place in a free market for monetary goods after June 2020...