Scott MinerdOvjeren akaunt

@ScottMinerd

Global Chief Investment Officer of . These are my views on the global economy and financial markets

USA
Vrijeme pridruživanja: kolovoz 2010.

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  1. 29. sij

    Uncertainly around the , and past incidents like SARS in 2003, would seem to support 10-year note returning to their lows around 1.3 percent.

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  2. 29. sij

    The market reaction to the was an opportunity to take gains, but the rally since then tells me there is still a measure of complacency in the market.

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  3. 29. sij

    The small tweak in the statement regarding is softening the market up for a shift in its approach targeting higher levels of average inflation.

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  4. 29. sij

    I don’t agree with Bill Dudley's argument that the ’s T-bill purchases aren’t driving markets. If the Fed is adding liquidity to the market through large scale asset purchases—which is the definition of —it drives asset prices.

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  5. 29. sij

    The is committed to sustaining the expansion, but the business cycle is not dead. The high levels of debt in the corporate sector will be the center of concern when the cycle turns.

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  6. 29. sij

    There is no doubt that we are in the “everything bubble.” Pick your asset class and prices are up. But the heavily indebted corporate sector is vulnerable if the begins to slow.

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  7. 24. sij

    Weak earnings growth and a continued increase in leverage has resulted in more credits being downgraded than upgraded by the ratings agencies. Downgrades will add headwinds to business investment.

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  8. 23. sij

    The time has come for the moralizing and greenwashing that dominate much of the discussion to end and realistic practical solutions to become the primary focus of debate.

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  9. 21. sij

    Until policy makers put in place the incentives that make it in the economic best interest of all stakeholders to start changing their behaviors, I don’t think it’s possible to reach the by 2030.

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  10. 21. sij

    I think the fundamentals in the economy are actually pretty good. But eventually if there are price pressures the will feel an obligation to kill the expansion.

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  11. 21. sij

    Risk assets are priced almost to perfection. But bull markets only go as long as they go, and they only go as long as central banks keep the liquidity spigots open.

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  12. 20. sij

    One of the topics I am focused on at is the deterioration in the quality of the corporate markets. Ultimately, markets will need to reprice for rising default and downgrade risk with increased bond spreads relative to Treasury securities.

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  13. 17. sij

    If there is any hope of reaching the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, it is imperative that we use existing and new data sets to measure environmental and social progress in economic terms.

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  14. 16. sij

    The manufacturing business outlook survey sends a clear message that the manufacturing is over, which will support greater economic growth.

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  15. 15. sij

    I enjoyed talking markets this past weekend with , Frank Mottek, the Voice of LA Business. You can listen to the show here

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  16. 6. sij

    Technical factors support $22 silver—a break above $20 could initiate a run to recent highs. You can always print more bonds, but there's only so much gold and silver.

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  17. 6. sij

    A January pullback for is common, even without exogenous factors like war rumblings. But with positive seasonal factors including the downdraft in yields, multiple expansion can lift stocks higher into late spring.

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  18. Conditions today are characteristic of those that precede a Minsky Moment, in which excessive speculation and taking on additional credit risk during stable markets leads to a tipping point that leads to a period of instability.

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  19. In all likelihood, the has successfully staved off and extended the expansion, but the rhyming of history reminds us to consider how the 1998 scenario played out.

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  20. As continue to pump liquidity into the system, we will continue to see large amounts of malinvestment, booms in &A and , and huge appetite for long duration assets.

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