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ScottGottliebMD's profile
Scott Gottlieb, MD
Scott Gottlieb, MD
Scott Gottlieb, MD
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@ScottGottliebMD

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Scott Gottlieb, MDVerified account

@ScottGottliebMD

Senior Fellow @AEI. Partner @NEA. Contributor @CNBC. 23rd Commissioner @US_FDA 2017 to 2019. Boards: @Pfizer @Illumina @AetionInc @TempusLabs

Washington, DC
uncontrolledspread.com
Joined May 2009

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 May 27

      Nate Silver Retweeted Health Nerd

      OK let's get this on record. What percentage chance would you assign to a lab leak? Because there are a lot of credible people I'm reading from and talking to that consider it reasonably likely (at least 50%).https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1397807872033976323 …

      Nate Silver added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same - natural origin very likely, lab leak thus far entirely unproven and a very low chance The rest is mostly misconceptions caused by reading only sensationalist headlines https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1397160688284536842 …
      Show this thread
      1,066 replies 120 retweets 1,298 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Florian Krammer‏Verified account @florian_krammer May 27
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      Not impossible but less than 1% for a lab leak of a natural isolate. Logs below that for an engineered virus.

      127 replies 185 retweets 2,379 likes
      Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD May 27
      Replying to @florian_krammer @NateSilver538

      We need to assess possibility of lab leak not in isolation, based purely on scientific likelihood, but also in context of what we know: the admittedly circumstantial facts that emerge.This is no longer a purely scientific judgement but a security assessment based on entire mosaic

      6:46 AM - 27 May 2021
      • 75 Retweets
      • 722 Likes
      • K Davis King Jon Broscious debasish pal Emily The Rational MD Nescience LV RGI
      61 replies 75 retweets 722 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Rune Linding‏Verified account @RuneLinding May 27
          Replying to @ScottGottliebMD @florian_krammer @NateSilver538

          Some of the ‘evolutionary theory’ being referred to by the virology community is - sorry to say - flawed. There is a lack of Bayesian analysis and probabilistic modelling in general. This results in a deeply flawed assessment of the risks and likelihood of events.

          6 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        3. David Reinertson‏ @ReinertsonDavid May 27
          Replying to @RuneLinding @ScottGottliebMD and

          The “Bayesian analysis” I’ve seen so far is “There’s a virology lab, and an anonymous story that two people got sick there.” Have you seen an actual Bayesian equation with labeled variables?

          1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Ed Miller‏ @EdMillerPoker May 27
          Replying to @ScottGottliebMD @florian_krammer @NateSilver538

          Wish you had been in charge of messaging from day one Scott. Honestly believe it could have made all the difference.

          2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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        1. Matt‏ @Noirstradamus May 27
          Replying to @ScottGottliebMD @florian_krammer @NateSilver538

          This sounds like a statement of someone who insists on putting MD in his twitter handle.

          2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep May 27
          Replying to @ScottGottliebMD @florian_krammer @NateSilver538

          I feel like we're saying "odds of winning the lottery are very low" (true) to assess the causal path of a lottery winner (after it happened). Why did that person win this (terrible) lottery? Yes complex question but cannot be answered by examining the odds in a blank slate world.

          10 replies 7 retweets 195 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep May 27
          Replying to @zeynep @ScottGottliebMD and

          So two questions: if we had no pandemic, given what we know, how would we expect the next one to happen? Now that we *do* have this one, how would we assess what did happen? This doesn't argue for a particular answer to the issue: just that these are different causal questions.

          5 replies 6 retweets 100 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr. Angela Rasmussen‏Verified account @angie_rasmussen May 27
          Replying to @ScottGottliebMD @florian_krammer @NateSilver538

          The problem is that no new circumstantial facts have actually emerged to support laboratory origin.

          35 replies 11 retweets 299 likes
        3. This Tweet is unavailable.
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        1. Soph‏ @sophthedoodler May 27
          Replying to @ScottGottliebMD @NateSilver538 @florian_krammer

          So, “not on scientific likelihood,” but on “how compelling of a narrative we could write if we wanted this conclusion.” Got some WMD’s from Saddam in this sack of hypothetical storytelling too?

          0 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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        2. GOFAI‏ @GOFAI_ May 27
          Replying to @ScottGottliebMD @NateSilver538 @florian_krammer

          Not really, this is just a consensus problem. Whatever the majority of people believe is the origin of the virus should be our standard of truth.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Susanna Marlowe‏ @Smarlowe13 May 28
          Replying to @GOFAI_ @ScottGottliebMD and

          I assume you are being sarcastic.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies

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