OK let's get this on record. What percentage chance would you assign to a lab leak? Because there are a lot of credible people I'm reading from and talking to that consider it reasonably likely (at least 50%).https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1397807872033976323 …
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Some of the ‘evolutionary theory’ being referred to by the virology community is - sorry to say - flawed. There is a lack of Bayesian analysis and probabilistic modelling in general. This results in a deeply flawed assessment of the risks and likelihood of events.
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The “Bayesian analysis” I’ve seen so far is “There’s a virology lab, and an anonymous story that two people got sick there.” Have you seen an actual Bayesian equation with labeled variables?
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Wish you had been in charge of messaging from day one Scott. Honestly believe it could have made all the difference.
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This sounds like a statement of someone who insists on putting MD in his twitter handle.
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I feel like we're saying "odds of winning the lottery are very low" (true) to assess the causal path of a lottery winner (after it happened). Why did that person win this (terrible) lottery? Yes complex question but cannot be answered by examining the odds in a blank slate world.
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So two questions: if we had no pandemic, given what we know, how would we expect the next one to happen? Now that we *do* have this one, how would we assess what did happen? This doesn't argue for a particular answer to the issue: just that these are different causal questions.
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The problem is that no new circumstantial facts have actually emerged to support laboratory origin.
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So, “not on scientific likelihood,” but on “how compelling of a narrative we could write if we wanted this conclusion.” Got some WMD’s from Saddam in this sack of hypothetical storytelling too?
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Not really, this is just a consensus problem. Whatever the majority of people believe is the origin of the virus should be our standard of truth.
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I assume you are being sarcastic.
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