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1/2 To understand how IHME model changed, here are some states and the total healthcare resource utilization projected at epidemic peak between the model's last update April 2 and most recent update posted today. In some cases peak utilization declines but total deaths rise.pic.twitter.com/Y61W8eIhqZ
2/2 This reflects the impact of mitigation - a lower peak in terms of daily cases and healthcare resource utilization, but an epidemic that extends longer; in other words, a flattening of the curve, whereby the epidemic at its peak is now less severe in terms of daily new cases.pic.twitter.com/ynZsa390ti
Dr. Gottlieb, could you please possibly comment on the model’s substantially worsening revision for Massachusetts? Thank you.
Give it 24 hours. It will almost certainly change again.
Keep it up its working.
Perhaps, but didn't the model originally also assume further mitigation that has not actually happened?
I’ve asked this question too and I’m quite sure it did.
It means they reduced the percentage of people who get infected who ultimately go to the hospital. The assumptions for social distancing were already baked in.
Thanks
You write: "In some cases peak utilization declines but total deaths rise. This reflects the impact of mitigation-a lower peak in terms of daily cases & healthcare utilization, but an epidemic that extends longer." I thought flattening the curve was supposed to REDUCE deaths?!?
The model was supposed to account for the impact of mitigation. The projections have changed so dramatically in such a short period of time that I don't see how anyone can put any faith it this
Here's a good explainer. Bottom line: with epidemics, you are probably going to get a good or catastrophic result. Not much in the middle.https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246968335817781248 …
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