This one prediction is really getting milked. If you've read Taleb's other books one of the lessons is that out of a pool someone is always going to guess right. Michael Moore predicted a Trump win, does that mean he's right about everything?
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Indeed. I've finished your latest and found it thought provoking. There is only some overlap in the space you occupy though versus the examples here. I'm not arguing you, Mr. Adams, have a bad track record. I am arguing most of these guys receive negative market feedback.
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Shapiro occupies a lot of the same space you do, so that's a better comparison. I get the impression Krugman has a poor track record with predictions. Is there anyone keeping tally? Something like Longnow Foundation bets? That would be good fun.
End of conversation
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