"In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible" -- IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) Our statement http://fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf …
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Hey Scott, we had this discussion too.
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No, only makes sense to apply to systemic problems. All of them must be handled with precaution. Otherwise your probability of bust goes to 1. But I was more interested in your take on the IPCC admitting in 2001 it's not predictable
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Nothing has changed in the science of complex systems re: predictability
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As you said: We don't have enough ressources. Hey, maybe "making better use of ressources / discovering new ones" should have priority #1 then?
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