random models predict correctly by getting lucky. Magic 8-balls can do that too.
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Replying to @flyingfoxxx @ScottAdamsSays and
If a random model passes backtesting, and makes accurate predictions, why is it wrong?
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Replying to @XBONE_PR @ScottAdamsSays and
it's a matter of precision. Could be kinda sorta right most of the time. I call that a guess.
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Replying to @flyingfoxxx @XBONE_PR and
most likely a random guess will ultimately fail. It represents luck, not understanding.
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Replying to @flyingfoxxx @XBONE_PR and
Is that why economic models work so well? Scott says in his post, get down to one or two models that actually make pred and you got me hello
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Replying to @SamMobasher @flyingfoxxx and
Models predict the movement of planets in the solar system. And done.
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Replying to @XBONE_PR @SamMobasher and
That's why there is only one planetary model. See the pattern?
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @SamMobasher and
Except there are many. And the bad ones don't disqualify the good.
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Replying to @XBONE_PR @SamMobasher and
There are planetary models that don't predict where the planets will end up?
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @SamMobasher and
Sure, any number of discredited geocentric systems.
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Good example of why analogies are not part of reason.
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @SamMobasher and
Why then did you equate financial models with climate models?
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Replying to @XBONE_PR @ScottAdamsSays and
because they're both complex with many variables and don't have pred power
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