Here are some climate model predictions made ahead of time: Mt. Pinatubo: https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00800v.html … Spatial patterns: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n3/full/nclimate3224.html …
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They are using different models that are spun up at different grid cell sizes for different amounts of time.
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You expect there to be some differences. All these different research groups are testing the system --
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I haven't evaluated the data used to make that figure but suspect they used a diff method to come up with %
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but the point remains -- natural causes can't explain recent change. Human causes can.
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