But since I'm in the mood for a totally futile exercise, here's why his points are disingenuous at best. Let's start with models... 1/n
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Replying to @ClimateOfGavin
Remember George Box? "All models are wrong, but some are useful". It's not just true for climate, but also quantum physics, GR, SM etc. 2/n
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Replying to @ClimateOfGavin
It would be criminally irresponsible for scientists not to explore real world impacts of real structural uncertainty in complex systems 3/n
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Replying to @ClimateOfGavin
And we *know* that climate is complex https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/aerosol/modeling/nr1_movie/ … 4/npic.twitter.com/wgzrM2zq6W
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Replying to @ClimateOfGavin
It's *because* some aspects of climate change are robust to model differences that we have confidence those aspects reflect reality, but…5/n
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Replying to @ClimateOfGavin
of course we need to (and do) evaluate predictions of these models in out-of-sample tests (incl. but not exclusively the future). 6/n
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Replying to @ClimateOfGavin
Here are some climate model predictions made ahead of time: Mt. Pinatubo: https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00800v.html … Spatial patterns: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n3/full/nclimate3224.html …
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Replying to @ClimateOfGavin
Some more: Stratospheric cooling http://hannahlab.org/manabe-and-wetherald-1975-the-effects-of-2xco2-on-the-climate-of-a-gcm/ … Reconciling paleo-data: https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ri08300g.html … etc. There are more. 8/n
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Replying to @ClimateOfGavin
Indeed, the collection of models in the CMIP3 database (created in 2004), can also be tested against observations. 9/npic.twitter.com/FfVl0LT3lE
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Replying to @ClimateOfGavin
His 3rd point is just bizarre: *All* of the warming in the last 60 years is human-caused. See here for refs: https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=57 … 10/npic.twitter.com/5mdzhP2HnP
8 replies 17 retweets 41 likes
See how you made a (presumably) true graph look like a scam by omitting the argument against it, which surely exists?
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