Watch this 10 times. Focus on one color at a time. Watch the blue (60+) case load plummet as they get vaccinated. Watch the red (20-39) case load rise, and then plummet, as the vaccination rate crosses some thresholdhttps://twitter.com/H_Rossman/status/1373932554261303296 …
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Australia did better without vaccine. Italy did worse because old people. Americans are fat. Def nuanced. But the chart correlates with a standard respiratory illness curve for over a decade of data. Same curve without vaccine, albeit slightly worse.
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Australia did better because of a very, *very* strict lockdown and border control (it's an island)
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If left on its own, eventually we would reach herd immunity in any case, but a lot of people would die (as they did for the Spanish Flu)
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Forget about what you are "hearing" has anyone presented any data to back this out
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Spanish flu burned itself out from my understanding. Killed the vulnerable, herd immunity built up over time.
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Preprint updated this week
Patterns of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics following deployment of a broad national immunization program
Now with new data and analysis: