Help me with the math here. A "normal" virus that infects every age group equally would require 60-70% herd/vaccination immunity to stop the spread. But what about a virus that is massively biased toward 20% of the population? If we vaccinate around 80% of that 20%, are we done?
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If we were already there, would we know? If not, How would we know when we get there?
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IMHO, we've been below the the number that requires altering lifestyles for a looooooong time. Obviously I'm not a card-carrying member of the if-it-saves-just-one-life crowd.
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Well, first we had to have a vaccine. :) Now indeed age prioritization in vaccinations makes sense. But remember the danger of corona always came from the 'leverage' of everyone being susceptible. An unconstrained wave only among < age 65 could still overwhelm hospitals.
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That's maybe less of a problem in the U.S. where a lot of people have already been infected in the younger age groups. But it's definitely a thing for countries that have had few or close to zero infections. They need to vaccinate a lot.
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Long Covid is a real thing.
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Vaccines reduce serious illnesses but death rate would not drop enough to return to "normal". Maybe the death rate would be cut roughly by half. The virus will continue to spread. We would need another round of vaccination maybe before next winter.
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What do you base this on? Between vaccinations over 65 and medical/essential workers death would drop well over 50%, and that’s not including the potentially significant decrease in spread that might result in everyone else.
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That's too fucking sensible to ever work. If you understand why, you proceed to the next level of the simulation
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You need to consider the law of large numbers. Even though younger (<60) less likely to die, letting a virus rip through them all will still end up with substantial additional burden on healthcare.
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