For fun, I present the @ScottAdamsSays calibration curve!
I went through the archive and found 23 quantified predictions from Adams that could be scored, and scored them. ...He didn't do too well.pic.twitter.com/kaLBpCcR3i
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Would you have either the missing predictions and/or the corrected percentages?
Maybe you should read up a little bit about making quantifiable predictions. Still, even with the predictions that could be verified it looks like the average Joe’s curve: somewhat accurate but too many high-certainty predictions. Not bad. Room for improvement, but still OK-ish
Know what else is useless? Making "certain" predictions and being wrong 25% of the time when you do.
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