For fun, I present the @ScottAdamsSays calibration curve!
I went through the archive and found 23 quantified predictions from Adams that could be scored, and scored them. ...He didn't do too well.pic.twitter.com/kaLBpCcR3i
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What kind of labels would be helpful?
I think people either understand how to read a calibration curve or they don’t; labels won’t help so much as directing them to the Wikipedia page. FWIW I found it perfectly clear.
The data underlying the figure can be found on Peter's Google Sheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KiaNbaa1MJJbWeTC8MiYyc76cqkrmk1v8WA5WFUS_hI/edit#gid=0 … There's a lot of uncertainty on some of these proportions, and it's quite possible that your point-estimate calibration curve would look better with a longer track record!
Oh, it's missing most of my predictions, and the percentages are not close. Useless but fun.
Clearly the line graph is a profile of Huckleberry Hound.
I find the excel skill level, alone, discrediting
Not sure what you mean?
major pet peeve - bad or no labels
Looks like you got 9 of 13 in the 95% self claimed confidence, looka like a really great job, keep them coming @ScottAdamsSays
need to get 12 out of 13 for 95% confidence
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