I've seen too many experts unable to accurately predict the past; I'm not counting on them to tell me if the sun's coming up tomorrow.
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Delphi take?
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Predictions are hard,especially about the future.
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Tell that to the hard sciences.
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It's definitely a real thing. I'm guessing you mean it's not always accurate.
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Look at people who have overperformed the stock market for say 20-30 years. There you see the few people that can actually claim to make predictions above chance. Most "experts" are not among them.
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One reason is that if you can perform that well you don't choose to be an "expert" and have to sit and write research proposals (or similar administrative work) when you could do interesting work.
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I wonder if they could be more wrong by using predictability modelling
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If All the Economists Were Laid End to End, They Would Not Reach a Conclusion
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