Seems a bit of a mystery to me that masks and social distancing completely eliminated normal seasonal flu deaths but not COVID-19. I see a few possible explanations.
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It is not straight forward but yes, as someone who has used modeling to get an approximation of morbidity and mortality for other disorders in the past, I think they they constructed a reasonable model. Models for things that cannot be directly validated are always tricky.
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Doesn't answer the core question of why we only hear of other types of deaths of the same scale.
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From the CDC, in an average year the flu vaccine is only being said to reduce mortality by 6,300 people a year. I don’t think the CDC is overselling it because if they were making it up, they could go much bigger than this!pic.twitter.com/QUS3xzDggF
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Not an estimate I would trust. (I used to make those kinds of estimates for a living.)
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