I wrote about why COVID-19 cases are falling so fast https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/why-covid-19-cases-are-falling-so-fast/618041/ … If this reads like the most optimistic article I've ever written about COVID, that's probably because this is the most optimistic I've felt in 11 months
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Replying to @DKThomp @brianstelter
Seasonality is handwaving in February, without some science behind it. And there isn't. Partial immunity is most likely. I know we like to fetishize herd immunity, but the math that describes it is a very gross approximation of real life.
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Replying to @dgolding @brianstelter
first, partial immunity is absolutely covered in the piece. second, we know that other coronaviruses and respiratory viruses are seasonal. why wouldn't this one be even remotely seasonal?
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This is the high season for virus transmission, isn't it? Why would seasonality be reversed suddenly?
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https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/7/11/ofaa443/5929649 … "Of 707 [human coronavirus] articles reviewed, 22 met the inclusion criteria. The annual percentage of HCoV infections reached a peak in February globally."
3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
And if temperature matters, why does it all peak the same month when some places are summer already?
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